A Theory For Formation Of Large Empires By Peter Turchin
Turchin argues for a new model, the mirror-empires model, to explain why and how small states become or scale up to mega empires. Turchin defines mega-empires as large territorial states that controlled at least one million square kilometers. There have been over sixty between 3000 BCE and 1800 CE mainly in eastern Asia. The mirror-empires model argues that it is the antagonistic interactions on a steppe frontier between the nomadic pastoralists and the settled agrarian communities that lead to the rise of the mega empires.
The steppe frontier is a location for imperiogenesis as there is a feedback loop leading increasing political organization on either side of the steppe frontier. Turchin sees a scaling up of maximum empire size in the period between 800 and 200 BCE, the so-called Axial Age, a period during which most of the great world religions and philosophies emerged. Turchin believes that not only these new religions emerged as a way to cope with the constant threats from the steppe-raiders, but also proved crucial in holding together the ever-larger multi-ethnic empires Turchin posits two fundamental elements that need to be present on the steppe frontier for the mirror-empires model to be applied.
First, there needs to be a clear separation on the frontier where the “wet” side is inhabited by settled agriculturalists and the “arid” side is inhabited by pastoral nomads. Second, the pastoral nomads possess the military means and the incentive to raid the settled agriculturalists to acquire resources they lack. This leads to the rise of mega empires on the agrarian side based on the principle of mutual defense. This can be achieved in three ways: alliance between agrarian communities for mutual defense; annexation of territory by an agrarian community; and, finally, when nomadic pastoralists occupy the agricultural side of the frontier. Turchin argues this also leads a process of increasing organization on the steppe side as nomads need to band together to still be able to overcome the increased defense as well as maintain the ability to coerce the agrarian community to provide resources or tribute. This regained nomadic military superiority puts pressure on the agrarian side of the frontier to scale up again in order to remain able to defend itself. The Chinese empires present the most persuasive evidence for Turchin’s theory, as most empires arose on the northern frontiers close to the steppe lands.
The empires in the America’s fit least into Turchin’s model, as the continent lacked large domesticated animals needed for pastoralist empires to arise. In conclusion, the steppe frontier is a special place of imperiogenesis. The mutual interactions on the steppe frontier lead to increasing political organization in the pursuit of either mutual defense or maintain military superiority over the agrarian side. These are why small states scale up to become mega empires. While Turchin identified regional divergences from this mirror- empires model, the historical records support the broad macro-historical generalization that it was on the steppe frontier where empire formation was particularly intensive.
