An Empirical Study Of China’S Zigzagging Policies Towards Taiwan From 1995 To 2016

This paper aims to do an empirical study of China’s zigzagging policies towards Taiwan from 1995 to 2016, investigating their shortcomings in order to figure out how they have failed to ameliorate cross-strait relations. China has meted out a variety of policies throughout the Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping administrations, with two goals in mind; first, of preventing Taiwanese independence and second, of reuniting Taiwan with the motherland. These include the “one country, two systems” policy, the emphasis on peaceful reunification based on economic incentives as well as the use of military force.

Not only is the Taiwan issue important for US-China relations and the existing international order, but it is also crucial due to the fact that the international community views China’s reaction towards Taiwan as a key factor to whether it is a responsible stakeholder, or whether the “China threat” theory would be proven positive. It is also urgent to analyse the Taiwan issue because it has been speculated that the CCP is willing to use military force should reunification with Taiwan not be accomplished within a set timetable. Hence, this paper will analyse official Chinese policies and patterns of behaviour as well as the resulting reactions evoked, before suggesting how current and future policies can be formulated to prevent military confrontation over Taiwan.

Huang, Jing and Xiaoting Li, Inseparable separation

The making of China's Taiwan policy, (Singapore: World Scientific, 2010).This book analyses China’s Taiwan policy in the Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao administrations. It posits that the One China principle has been flexibly interpreted and implemented to fulfil policy goals that have been prioritised differently by each leadership, as well as due to the international climate and developments at various points in time. It provides detailed information of both formal government policies and patterns of behaviour, although focusing more on China than Taiwan. It provides a background of how the “One China” strategic framework came about, as well as the original goals it was meant to achieve.

Then, it elaborates on Taiwan’s reactions, where it diverged from diverged from the One China policy to form a Two States Theory in 1998. The Two States theory aimed to prove that Taiwan was not de jure a part of China. This book also uses an extensive amount of primary sources such as translations of Chinese-language speeches and documents by leaderships from both sides so as to give readers a better and more accurate understanding of the mindset of different leaders from both China and Taiwan. It concludes by determining that Taiwan is ultimately a ‘prisoner of the status quo’, where it cannot garner sufficient international support to ensure its statehood but is also unable to concur with Beijing regarding a mutually acceptable solution.

This book is extremely useful to the research project as it provides not only contemporary knowledge regarding overlapping administrations that will be analysed, but also a workable framework in terms of China’s outlook towards Taiwan. It does so by examining the two main forces China has to grapple with in this situation; namely, secessionist forces within Taiwan, as well as foreign forces that support Taiwanese independence. Further, it also defines China’s two main goals; firstly, the immediate goal of preventing Taiwanese independence, as well as the ultimate goal of reunification. The research paper can be guided by this framework. It will also extend this analysis to today’s Xi Jinping administration where China has expressed its willingness to use force regarding the Taiwan issue, a far cry from the preceding Hu Jintao’s administration’s policy of the ‘Four Nevers’, emphasising peaceful reunification.

Kevin G. Cai, Cross-Taiwan Straits relations since 1979

Policy adjustment and institutional change across the straits, (Singapore: World Scientific, 2011).This book studies cross-strait relations by focusing on the policy-making process and institutional change from both the perspectives of China and Taiwan since 1979. It analyses China’s evolving policies to Taiwan in three parts. First, it looks at the changing domestic contexts and international environment, explaining the relationship between structure and agency in the formulation of China’s Taiwan policy. Next, it studies the economic relations between China and Taiwan, arguing that it is a dynamic tactic employed by China to persuade Taiwan to accept reunification. Then, it covers the dimension of non-governmental exchanges between the two governments, propounding that it is also a tactic used by Beijing to create a more favourable environment in Taiwan for reunification.

The book then continues by analysing Taiwan’s China policy, focusing on party politics that have significant sway on public opinion, before looking at economic relations and the level of dependence Taiwan has on China. Then, it studies Ma Ying Jeou’s policy of ‘diplomatic truce’. Finally, it looks at the evolution of the institutional structure of both China and Taiwan’s “One China” policy. This book is a great aid to the research project as it provides a well-detailed explanation of Taiwan’s policies, and the reactions it has had to China’s. This helps us better understand the general outlook of Taiwan and better estimate their reactions, which can be of assistance in the part of the research paper where suggestions are made on future Chinese policies. The analyses on the institutional structure of policy formulation are also novel, given that the decision-making process in China is typically shrouded in secrecy.

Moreover, the structure-agency framework Cai uses highlights the importance of a country’s leadership and the ruling Taiwanese President’s beliefs and values as it can severely affect the policy direction of Taiwan. It illustrates this point by comparing the Ma and Chen administrations. It also highlights the importance of party politics, with the Blue Camp accepting the One China theory, while the Green Camp absolutely rejects it. Hence, the research paper will not merely look at China’s evolving policies from its different administrations, but will also take into account the reactions of Taiwan based on its leadership. Further, this book also sheds light on the fresh subject of non-governmental exchanges as a part of official Chinese policy, which has not been explored much in the literature of the One China policy. The research paper can fill in the gap of current literature by exploring these issues, using this book as a beginning.

Huang, J, Xi Jinping’s Taiwan policy

Boxing Taiwan in with the one-china framework. University of California Press, 2017). This reading analyses China’s Taiwan policy under the Xi administration up until 2016, providing a more updated analysis of China’s Taiwan policy. It argues that throughout the years, China has never deviated from its one China policy in principles. However, it is strengthened during the Xi administration, through the strategic framework of “box[ing] Taiwan in” so that it has no choice but to agree to reunification. It also highlights the increasing importance of Taiwan to fulfil the ‘China Dream’, implying that China will no longer be as patient to adhere to the status quo, but would push for reunification through other methods. Huang further states that another tactic of Xi’s is to isolate Taiwan as much as possible from US-China relations.

This is not only to prevent the interference of the US in its ‘domestic matter’, but also to ensure the stability of Sino-American relations will be minimally impacted by potential conflict in the Taiwan Straits. This reading is useful when looking at the Taiwan issue in terms of China’s rise; whether it adheres to its ‘peaceful rise’ commonly espoused by Chinese officials, or whether the China Threat theory is more likely to be proven true. It also helps to locate the Taiwan issue in the broader picture of Sino-American relations, which the research paper will also elaborate on. It is thus useful because it brings into question how Taiwan fits into the theory of China’s peaceful rise, highlighting its emphasis on trying to detach the Taiwan issue from its international standing. The strategic framework of ‘boxing Taiwan in’ can also be further explored in the research paper when analysing Xi’s policies towards Taiwan today.