Analysis of Carl Sagan's article 'Nuclear Winter'
Carl Sagan was an American scientist who was famous for his astronomical researches and study of natural sciences. He also hosted a TV series named “Cosmos” which became the most watched science program and gave him a lot of fame. In this paper he is not only discussing the deaths which will be caused in case of nuclear war but also the long-term devastating effects on the climate and how the temperature change will lead to the end of human race. This paper was written after almost 30 years of the most horrible accident of the 20th century (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) and the fear of another World War was still there as the Soviet’s had tested their first nuclear weapon in early fifties and there was a fear that Soviet can launch a surprise nuclear attack on US. Today this topic is also of great importance as the brutality on countries like Burma, Palestine, Kashmir and other areas, which are still seeking for justice and freedom, can lead us to the next World War whose consequences will be devastating. In this article, the author has effectively given his point of view with scientific facts and emotional approach. However, his focus is only on the northern and southern hemisphere and not the other areas of the world. Also, there are some logical scientific disagreements with his paper.
The author is giving us a detailed analysis of how the Earth would end up after a nuclear war as the temperature will fall below freezing point. How badly the radioactivity will tear down the humanity. The daylight will be converted into darkness and for plants it will become impossible to perform photosynthesis in such darkness. The cultural lands would be ruined, and the food supply would be limited. And all of this will finally lead to the suffering of man kind which will cause the extinction of human species.
Firstly, the article is well structured as the author first discuss the deadly effects of War on the loss of life. Then he further comes to his main claim of the effect on the climatic change due to War. He develops his argument by giving scientific research that how they were able to get to the conclusion on the climatic change by studying the situation on Mars and by examining the volcanic eruptions. The only missing thing is lack of details on the eastern and western hemisphere which shows that all the authors intention was on the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere where the United states and Soviets were located. Furthermore, the author fails to answer the other scientists who criticized Carl by saying that he exaggerated the severity of Nuclear winter. The writer has also used emotional appeal to convey his opinion by giving us the view of the pain from which we will suffer after the nuclear war. Billions of people will suffer from the consequences. Almost half of the world will be dead and how other half will tolerate the effects. This hearth breaking effect performed amazing results and due to which the world is still safe from the disastrous effects of nuclear war. The writer has used formal tone and quite simple language with is easily understandable. As the writer’s audience is the nuclear armed countries so the author needs to communicate his audience in a polite tone which he did in an extraordinary way. The author is creating a clear picture of how the nuclear winter will look like and due to this emotional appeal, the author had a great impact on the intended audience. Apart from emotional appeal, the author has also used a serious tone to describe the gravity of the situation as it will be impossible for anyone to live if a nuclear war starts.
Secondly, the author has used a whole scientific research to publish his paper. He has used the astonishing facts that how sand clouds will minimize the temperature up to negative 25 degrees centigrade which will have great impacts on human life. But the facts like there won’t be any photosynthesis process and all plants will be destroyed and how ozone layer will be depleted and how we will be short of food stock if only 5,000 megatons are detonated. These facts contradict with the accident of Hiroshima and Nagasaki where huge number of megatons were bombarded, and there was not that much effects as we can see in this paper. Of course, the effects were horrible, and we can see the carbon images of Hiroshima and Nagasaki which are dreadful but still there is existence of life. However, we cannot see any hope of life existence in this article. As this article was written in late seventies when there was a danger for US because Soviets had already tested their nuclear weapons. There was a panic that World War 3 can start as everyone wanted to take revenge from the United States. In this sense this article was a huge step to stop any chaotic situation which can bring about the next War. Although the nuclear winter effects won’t be that much terrible as recent studies show, but still even a single nuclear attack can cause so much damage that its space cannot be filled even after hundreds of years. So, this research paper was a great achievement to stop the Soviets from nuclear War even if there were some illogical nuclear winter discussed in it. Moreover, as discussed in the article, nuclear war is a situation which can only be treated intellectually, and we can’t rely on experimental data. So, it was impossible for the them to calculate the exact effects of nuclear winter.
Additionally, the author did his job perfectly by keeping the interest of the intended audience. Each line is bringing more curiosity to the audience. Each paragraph is introducing audience with a new problem that even the audience will also face if a World War starts. Another good thing about this article is that the author gives us a fine detail on how he gathered the data by studying the atmosphere on Mars and researching of the volcanic eruptions. The author is also credible on writing such topics as he himself is a scientist. Also, Sagan has not mentioned any of the country which shows that he is not biased.
He is not saying that only a specific region or the countries without nuclear weapons will be affected. The whole world will face the consequences of Nuclear war in the form of climatic changes. But still article is too much tense as the author is only conveying a message of extinction of life and we can not see any kind of hope in it. The author has also not given us any details on how an average citizen can help in stopping such situations of nuclear wars. We can only see a sense of hopelessness in this article. The language is too much serious about the topic which is a good thing as the topic itself conveys a message of seriousness but to attain more attraction and to keep the audience interest the author should have used a mixture of anecdote and quotations which are missing in this paper. Besides, the author is not giving us any example of the past, the most important of which is Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He is only providing us with the experimental facts and figures. The starting of this article is not that much impressive as the author just jumps to his main point without any general discussion. He should have given us a short story or some quotation at the beginning. The writers hook is missing in this paper which loses the attraction of reader. The body of the article is well structured and impressive. It is also attention seeking and merges the audience into it. The ending is also awesome as he talks about the luck which can not hold us forever from the nuclear war. How we have placed our civilization in jeopardy. He is leaving his audience with a choice of whether they want to carry on like that or they want a peaceful world ?
In conclusion, the writer has effectively persuaded his audience as his main claim was to stop the nuclear armed countries to start a nuclear War. There were some scientific logical errors in his article. He also failed to answer the criticism on his research paper. But the most important thing is that he stopped the world from another world War by successfully using emotional approach and became a strong wall to stop another Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
