Causes Of Possible And Probable Attack Of Kuwait By Iraq And Its Solutions

The issues faced when confronted with the topic at hand, that is, the oncoming fear merging into a reality regarding the possible and probable Iraqi invasion of the State of Kuwait are distributed in various divisions.

These divisions include, but are not limited to economic issues, territorial disputes, political controversies and conflict, governmental oppression and repression, oil disputes and repayment of war indemnities .

There are several causes which when compiled together comprise of the crisis at hand.

These are as follows:

Oilfield Directional Drilling mechanisms employed by Kuwait

Directional boring (or Slant Drilling) is the "act of burrowing non-vertical wells."

It permits boring into the storage area/basin/reservoir where vertical access is difficult, not pragmatic or unrealistic.

This type of drilling can likewise decrease the ecological cost and scarring of the surrounding area and landscape thereby being an intelligent manner to transfer oil in a clandestine manner.

The Rumailia oil fields were situated at a distance of 32 kilometres from the Iraq-Kuwait border, in Southern Iraq and are estimated to contain 17 billion barrels of oil. The Kuwaiti government implemented Directional drilling practices to essentially tap into Iraq’s oil supply and furtively claim the revenue contained within for itself. Saddam Hussein, on discovery of this, demanded a 2.4 billion US dollar repayment from the State of Kuwait as an approximate for the profit unrightfully stolen from Iraq by the Kuwaitis.

War indemnities owed to the State of Kuwait

The Kuwaiti government provided Iraq with 14 billion US Dollars during the period 1980-1988 for the course of the Iran-Iraq War, in exchange for territorial security and integrity which could not be provided due to a dearth in numbers of the Kuwait Armed Forces.

Affluence of Kuwait

Kuwait had established itself the most affluent of the Gulf States. Saddam Hussein found a convenient solution to the economic predicaments encountered by Iraq by exploiting and seizing control over Kuwait’s oilfields and wealth. The dictator threatened to make Iraq establish its monopoly in the oil market by dominating 75% of its trade, exports, revenue and dealings.

The 1973 Oil Crisis

Initiated in October 1973, when the constituents from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries or the OAPEC (comprising of the Arab individuals from OPEC, in addition to Egypt, Syria and Tunisia) announced an embargo on oil.

In the Yom Kippur War of the year, Egypt and Syria, with the help of other Arab countries, propelled a military crusade against Israel, keeping in mind the end goal to recover Arab domains lost to Israel in the 1967 Six Day War. Israel went on full atomic alarm, stacking warheads into planes and ballistic missiles. Following which, the United States of America took the executive decision to provide Israel with armaments and ammunition. The OAPEC chose to retaliate against the United States, reporting an oil embargo. This was continued until March 1974.

The Arabic countries constituting the OAPEC, particularly the large-scale oil producers, decided to lift the embargo in March of 1974 under the guarantee of an arranged settlement amongst Syria and Israel proved as an adequate means of persuasion. However, the impact of the embargo is not forgotten and serves to remind the international community, particularly the Western countries with high investments in the oil market, of the importance of the region's oil and the need for positive relations with the Arabic nations.

Geopolitical importance of Kuwait

Territorial disputes also ensued between Iraq and the State of Kuwait for the following two reasons:

i. Kuwait’s location was such that it provided Iraq access to the Arabian Gulf. In addition to this, it had a relatively long coastline. This serves as a necessity for developing naval strength as Iraq is a landlocked country.

ii. The former Ottoman Empire was disbanded subsequent to The Great War wherein after the British integrated Mosul, Baghdad and Basra to form Iraq. However, the State of Kuwait had been under the rule of the Kuwaiti Royal Family since 1756. In 1961 when the State of Kuwait emerged as an independent country, Iraq refused to accept the decision and demanded that Kuwait be restored to the former under an Iraqi territory. In doing so, Iraq has accepted the earlier definition of states as defined by the British but is revolting against latter independence provided under the international community. This unjust selection of definition of division accepted by Iraq is too a contributing factor to the crisis at hand.

Substantial Western Investments in the Gulf States

The Western countries have significant investments in the oil market which exists within the Gulf States. States which provide the West; particularly the United States of America, crude oil which in turn supplies the growing industries, stand to make significant profits from the same. By exercising control of the oil market and establishing a monopoly, Iraq could use the profits acquired to rid itself of its exorbitant debts, indemnities and the like.

Consequences of the Iran-Iraq War

After the war, Iraq was troubled with about $80 billion paying off debtors, about twice its GDP. The cost in human life was no less than 200,000 for a country of just 17 million.

The war resulted in instability for the Ba'ath Party and added to the poor relations amongst Iraq and its Arab neighbours and in addition, neglected to tackle the Arab-Persian clash. The utilization of chemical weapons and the An-Anfal crusade which delineated and executed annihilation against the Kurds in northern Iraq placed Iraq in the crosshairs of the global community for its violations against mankind and further destabilized Saddam Hussein's position.

As a result Iraq’s economy was on the verge of crippling and the utilisation of chemical weapons during the war was greatly condemned by the international community, albeit armaments were supplied to both Iraq and Iran by a plethora of nations, including the global superpowers to ensure and secure the flow of oil in the region owing to the importance of the same. The aforementioned factors culminated in the rise of international tension, particularly in bilateral tensions between Iraq and Kuwait which have arrived at the stage present today, that is, of the potential invasion of Kuwait by the Iraqi forces under the leadership of dictator Saddam Hussein.

Foreign Policy:

"It would be naive to think that the problems plaguing mankind today can be solved with means and methods which were applied or seemed to work in the past”

Mikhail Gorbachev, Premier of the Soviet Union

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republic’s policy, regarding the potential invasion of the State of Kuwait by the Iraqi Government, is crystal clear.

The USSR recognises and asserts the significance of crude oil as a trading commodity in the current time period. The desire for domination over the oil advertise accurately represents and captures the zeitgeist of the age and therefore is a matter of urgent, international importance.

Owing to the erratic, unreliable nature of the dictatorial President of Iraq, namely Saddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti, the situation at hand must be dealt with in the most meticulous and delicate manner conceivable. Any supply of armaments, military equipment, tactical consultation or strategical counsel provided to either potential belligerent, will primarily be a result of an amalgamation of further Soviet interests with an emphasis on maintaining world peace. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republic does not wish for Iraq to exercise control over the State of Kuwait. This is due to the fact that the expenditure on crude oil under the Kuwaiti domain is relatively lower and under Saddam Hussein’s selfish ideals is likely to soar, if these ideals are made a reality. This would not only cause indescribable damage to the global economy but would also result in a transfer and establishment of a monopoly on oil in the hands of Iraq, which if given control over Kuwait will be provided with access to the Arabian Gulf (allowing an increase in its naval power). However, as of the moment, although the Soviet Union is vigilant and fastidious with respect to the actions of Saddam Hussein, we are all the whilst in the hopes that brokered peace talks can serve as the white flag of surrender and peace ending the strife and will take action when deemed a necessity to maintaining international peace and security.

The USSR strongly believes that the greed and increasing capitalism as propagated by the United States needs to be curbed immediately. The USSR believes in securing, advocating and disseminating its socialist beliefs from its East European satellite states, to the entire European bloc and further onwards to the United States via exploited states and countries. The establishment of such communist governments is the aim of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic, in the aforementioned as it would not only offer a voice to the working class but provide for a more just distribution of wealth, products, goods and services thereby abolishing or at least severely deteriorating the potential for existence for practices such as debt slavery, disparity between the wealth-owning capitalists and the working sectors. The USSR further believes that in order to secure its socialist policies as well as to increase its sphere of influence and dominance in the oil advertise and avoid its collapse in other countries applying the same governing structure, hostility from any nation wishing to curb the same will be a matter concerning not only the single nation attacked but all socialist nations, thereby justifying the actions of any socialist state in order to defend its principles. However, to curb the growing internal tensions, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics has implemented a policy allowing small to mid capital indigenous companies to establish private businesses in order to adapt the policy of Communism to match the necessary zeitgeist of the period, whereas the bulk of public services continue to be undertaken by the government.

In conclusion, having been one of the founding members of the United Nations, and been granted the right to hold and exercise veto power in the United Nations Security Council, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic recognises its own importance with regards to determining acts of aggression, taking action against the same and cooperation on an international scale, with the implementation of its foreign policy in coordinance with that of its satellite states, to resolve the crisis at hand.

Solutions:

Imposition of an oil embargo on Iraq

Taking into consideration the primary incentive behind the potential invasion is to acquire the oil which is in abundance in Kuwait, if an oil embargo is placed on Iraq by the global community it would not only be rendered passive with regards to the Kuwaiti oil it can potentially sell but also be incapable of selling its own indigenous oil. The prices of oil per barrel would inevitably plummet and its market of customers would reduce as well. It is important to note that this would be a temporary solution as an oil embargo would interfere with and damage trade globally, especially in such an affluently sourced country. However, in the temporary time period in which the embargo would be imposed, would certainly cripple the Iraqi economy, and President Saddam Hussein being aware of the same will be compelled to surrender the idea of invasion.

Import of oil from alternative sources

Venezuela

Venezuela serves as the upcoming country with the largest oil reserves in the world. This is yet to be proven, however, research conducted in its Orinoco Belt proves oil sand deposits exist there which are far less viscous in comparison to those of Canada and can, therefore, be produced by more conventional means.

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Iraq and Saudi Arabia have arrived at a consensus of peace. Crude oil can now potentially be exported from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia which has an approximate one-fifth of the world’s total oil reserves. However, this could take an alternative route and Iraq may divert its anger and see this as betrayal by Saudi Arabia thereby souring relations once again. Hence, decisions regarding crude oil exported from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia must be taken with utmost care and consideration.

Canada

Canada has immense seaward stores of flammable gas, while the area of Alberta holds a lot of oil and gas. It additionally has an enormous measure of stores in view of the Athabasca oil sands.

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics too harbours substantial oil reserves which are and can be utilised in order to maintain self-sufficiency in the absence of external oil supply and trade.

Provision of armaments to the State of Kuwait

Iraq having emerged from the Iran-Iraq war with proven greater militarily strength, currently contains a standing army of over 900,000 men who cannot be reintegrated into the economy. This army faces no strong opposition in the Gulf States thereby rendering the annexation of any of its Arabic neighbours a possible excursion to execute. If the State of Kuwait was to be supplied with arms and ammunition to counter and supersede the Iraqi army, it would greatly hamper the probability of Iraq emerging from the annexation as victorious. This provision must especially be concentrated in terms of aerial support, for the Kuwaiti air force is relatively non-existent in comparison to that of Iraq. In addition to militarial provision of armaments, tactical advice, strategic consultation, satellite image provision, necessities for survival of soldiers and medical aid must be provided to Kuwait as well. The army must be made proficient in assault and ambush tactics such as guerilla warfare and the air force in bombing runs and lightning warfare. The above must be done to ensure that the State of Kuwait exceeds Iraq not only in terms of brute militarial strength, but also, in terms of tactical intelligence and support.Therefore, in conclusion, the above would deter Iraq from invading the State of Kuwait.

Redefinition of Division of Land

Allegations into the directional drilling methods employed by the State of Kuwait into the Iraqi oil fields must be investigated. If found to be true, the State of Kuwait must make the requisite reparations to Iraq, the amount of which shall too be designated by the United Nations upon investigation and meticulous calculation, not as per President Saddam Hussein’s estimate of 2.4 billion US Dollars. This investigation must be undertaken by unbiased forces and teams under the United Nations. In turn, sole custody of the Rumailia oil fields and reserves must be granted to Iraq. The State of Kuwait must remain as is and the boundaries defined by the British in 1922, followed subsequent to Kuwaiti emancipation from British colonial rule in 1961 shall be accepted and followed. Limits, conventions and legislation regarding directional drilling surrounding inter-country boundaries must be established to circumvent the possibility of further allegations such as the above from taking form in the future.

Conclusion:

The political, economic, territorial and legal predicaments caused due to the desire of acquiring a monopoly over oil within the Gulf States is an issue faced by a majority of the contenders and members of the OAPEC and the Arab League. With powerful and resourceful nations such preparing to join the dispute, and with global investments in the region, the crisis has been disseminated on an international scale. Therefore co-operation on an international scale amongst the primary countries currently engaged in the negotiation, as well as the recent contenders, is a requisite to devising a solution. However, unorthodox and unconventional means may need to be employed to reach such a stage. The worldwide idea of the issue with respect to the potential attack of Kuwait by Iraq requires international collaboration to annihilate it. The main foundation for effective usage of the arrangement of activity is global co-operation in order to constitute a united front and solution to the predicament at hand.

Thereby, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic officially resigns to remain actively seized on the matter.