Predicting Of The Pest Outbreak
Pest forecasting is the surveillance of biotic and abiotic factors of all the plants in relation to their physical environment in order to predict the outbreak of the pests through estimating pest abundance and distribution. Temperature is used to measure the degree of how or cold the place is and precipitation is one of the most critical factors involved in pest surveillance. Temperature is more used when predicting the breakout of insects and moisture for plant diseases, temperature influences the development of insects and temperature is the basic models should be used in predicting pest outbreak. The degree day is the amount of heat required in order to be completely and it is based on the premise that a lifespan of the insect requires and the more the light the faster the insect grows and the less light the slow the insect grows. This amount of heat required is expressed in degree day.
The agro – meteorological data is used especially in forecasting the weather, and this one uses the data collected on the pest incidence and how extremely serious across from different plants and living creatures in their regions coupled with weather data to predict pest outbreak. When the measures are put in place to control the pest then data is used from different parts of agro ecological areas it provides a spatial distributing of the pest. The data collected from the field on pest it is integrated with the weather data in the model in order to come up with early warning measures and this information is disseminated through a forecasting platform. When predicting the population of dynamic pest, the life tables are used and hence fore, it tries to predict in reality what happens with the relation of insect population and there take into account the factors that affects the mortality of insects such as predators, pathogens, parasitoid and weather parameters. The main idea is to develop a population model that simulates reality.
To prevent new insect pests from spreading, tough regulations have to be place in and be enforced at the borders, and in all areas of trade involved in agricultural commodities. Legislative measures are put in place between countries through international bodies and even within countries. Quarantine is used to prevent the spread of pests to new areas by containing it within an area over a period of time and by preventing it from multiplying. In Zambia there is the Noxious Weeds Act that prevents the spread of noxious weeds prescribed in the Act. There is also the Cotton Act that describes how rotten cotton has to be destroyed in order to prevent the spread of pests to the next crop. The government of Zambia is a member of the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), which has standards on how pest problems are handled in international trade.
