Putin's Foreign Policy In The Next Years
In the beginning of the year, Vladimir Putin announced his plans to press ahead with reforms that would make his president less powerful by redistributing power in a way that would increase the influence of Russian parliament and the Prime Minister's office. The approval ratings of Putin have declined in the past couple of years, in part due to unpopular pension reforms and a stagnating economy. The 2019 municipal elections were also fraught with street protests, with the fractured opposition in Russia voicing anger about the president they see and the ruling elite that overruled the legislature. The next changes seem like a redistribution of power, with Parliament giving it the right to designate a Prime Minister, who then nominates a cabinet for parliamentary approval. Putin described how the president will be required to nominate them in this case; he will not be allowed to reject candidates accepted by Parliament. In January the constitutional amendment was accepted in accordance with these requirements. The role of the State Council is to ensure the proper workings and interactions between the national institutions, and the definition of key directions of domestic, foreign and socio-economic policies. The tension between the ultra-centered authority of one person and increased speculation about a succession from Putin suggests that Russia's relations with external countries will be defined in the next few years. The past presidential term of Putin has already triggered tremendous improvement.
Many argue that the strategic constancy combined with tactical flexibility will be defined in Putin's foreign policy. It is focused on outdated stereotypes about Russia, the West and international order. It will proceed. The assumption that Russia, despite its problems, is an increase in power but also some uncertainty and even fear will be filled with a sense of high trust. Putin will aspire for greater foreign recognition and credibility but ultimately his goals stay the same, with any improvements more stylistic than transformative. Yet Kremlin's policymaking, as with previous presidential words, is opportunistic yet pragmatic, when foreign events take place.
Putin's brand of conservative nationalism relies on Russia's two core assumptions. First, its spetsifika, a term that contains peculiarity and particularity. It represents in the sense of foreign affairs the firm belief that Russia is not a regular country but an integral part of humanity and of itself. He cannot however be just a rule-maker, especially if other major powers, primarily the United States, have taken an exceptional approach to normal rules and norms themselves. Putin believes that Russia has no less responsibility. This is a second fundamental assumption: Russia's historical destiny is a great power. Secondly, its economy is heavily dependent on natural resources and growth slow or that Russia is poorly ranked in the world by several metrics. Nonetheless, it is a big power.
Russia's greatest challenge is to reinvent itself in a new world order as a ruler. This is obviously a long-term project well beyond the current term of office. But the process has already started in the eyes of the Kremlin. The US-led system is imploding; the West loses its grip over' normal' principles and values; and world affairs are moving to a non-western center of gravity. All this creates an environment in which Russia really has the opportunity to repackage itself as an international citizen responsible for solving global problems, in other words, to become a legitimately responsible person.
The chances of a significant change in Russian foreign policy will therefore be small in the next few years. Moscow also tends to be quite hospitable and rational. In other cases, it will be confident and confrontational, using a variety of traditional and new tools. Putin must satisfy his propensity for operational shocks both in order to achieve specific goals and in good working experience and as a foreign statesman, he would present himself as a symbol of reason so intelligence in a society that is either missing.
