Social, Cultural And Political Conditions Of The Influence Of Islamic State

Islamic State (IS) seemed to appear out of nowhere, but experts know that is not the case. Whilst the group known as "ISIS" may fall, the social, cultural and political conditions that sparked their violence are here to stay.

As of 2018, the Islamic State, also known as IS, lost its de facto capitals of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria. IS has also lost a majority of its territory including oil fields which have resulted in an economic downfall due to their primary source of funding being cut. Furthermore, IS has lost over 75% of its social media presence since its peak in 2014 that was fundamental for both the groups narrative and recruiting. This has created a widely accepted perception that the Islamic State is losing and will eventually fall. While the eventual fall of IS can be seen as an eventuality, it can be argued that the social, cultural and political conditions which sparked the violence of IS are here to stay. Many arguments support and oppose this viewpoint hence this essay will focus on exploring both perspectives, mainly focusing on the social, cultural and political conditions as independent factors. Before exploring each condition, an adept understanding of the Islamic State and how it came into power must be established to understand further its history and the implications of the conditions mentioned in the argument.

The origins of IS can be traced back to the aftermath of the United States’ intervention in Iraq where the US removed Saddam Hussein from and introduced an interim government as a new political establishment. The government was seen as discriminatory to Sunni Muslims and created resentment to the US and a power vacuum which led to the creation of Al Qaeda in Iraq in 2006 by Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi. After the death of Zarqawi, the Islamic State of Iraq was formed by the remnants of Al Qaeda in Iraq and in 2011 Abu Bakr al Baghdadi took charge and expanded into Syria amidst the similar political instability with the Bashar al-Assad regime. By 2014, the Islamic State presence in Syria and Iraq are firmly established and IS announces the creation of a caliphate. Although the inception of IS was a product of the political conditions of the region, IS maintained its influence by pursuing a cultural and social narrative which allowed it to thrive in recruiting new members domestically and internationally. Syria and Iraq both contain a large population of Sunni Muslims which IS used to form a cultural narrative based around the apocalypse and Wahhabism, both of which were utilised by the group’s predecessor, Al-Qaeda. Although the apocalypse was a traditional method of attracting the support and loyalty of zealots, Wahhabism was a more contemporary method developed in the 18th century Saudi Arabia which created a new form of Islam. This form of Islam promoted the use of a military jihad to attain personal political agendas which allowed IS to promote further their political agenda of creating a caliphate through the use of religion. Their social narrative was equally if not more effective than their cultural narrative as it focused on gaining the support of less extreme Muslims.

The social conditions left behind from the political instability provided a void which IS filled by providing state services such as justice, security, education and healthcare. These services were organised relatively well and gave the inhabitants a perception that IS was a stabilising force that provides which led to support IS amidst their violence. With all these conditions creating the perfect environment that enabled IS to exists and in turn allow them to effectively and efficiently commit acts of violence over an extensive period, it is no surprise that there is a concern that these same conditions will still exist after IS that will lead to another group taking the place of IS. However, these conditions must be analysed to see if they will still exist today and if they will still have the same effect it did with IS.

The political conditions that sparked the violence of IS were that of instability and weakness. Political conditions are always changing. In 2006, Iraq suffered a weak government that did not have much support from the people as well as constant violence due to the invasion and presence of the United States. However, in 2011 President Obama declared the war in Iraq over and by 2017 the United States presence in Iraq has diminished. In addition, the stability of the government has significantly approved, and the support of the people have increased. In 2016, prime minister Haider al-Abadi has an approval rating of 37% which increased to 52% in 2017. This significant increase of 15% shows that people have a significantly more considerable amount of support towards the government. The Kurds, a group persecuted by IS also showed higher confidence in the Iraqi military from 36% in 2016 to 57% in 2017. This is due to the Kurds setting aside their push for independence and joining the US-backed Iraqi forces in clearing the remaining IS members in the region. Both the stability of the country and confidence the people have toward the government and the armed forces are a clear sign that the political atmosphere is improving. Although the political condition is not yet ideal and people remain unsatisfied with the condition, the status quo suggests that the condition that once led to the rise of IS does not exist at the level that would allow another organisation to take place. Syria, on the other hand, is still undergoing a civil war and suffering significant instability. Due to the conflict being a proxy war with the involvement of the United States, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, there is large uncertainty when the war will end (EKŞİ). Even if IS falls, the political conditions which allowed IS to rise in Syria will still exist and allow another group to replace IS. This is further evident as IS was created from the remnants of Al Qaeda hence it is possible for another organisation to succeed IS and follow its path of violence regardless of the goals of the new organisation. In the case that the Assad Regime ends and the relevant parties vacate it creates the similar political conditions as Iraq where there will be a void of power, and it will then be even more likely that another group will use that condition to spark their violence and ideologies. Unlike the political conditions, the cultural conditions are more durable and long lasting. The cultural identity of Syria and Iraq and many Middle Eastern countries are rooted in their belief in Islam. There are variations of Islam, the two predominant ones being Shia Muslims and Sunni Muslims. The tensions began immediately after the death of Prophet Mohamed between who would become the new leader. The Sunni’s won gaining political power and the support of the majority of Muslims; however, both groups lived peacefully without much conflict. The sectarian tensions can be traced back to 1970 during the Iranian Revolution, where the Shia took control over Iran and since have been involved in numerous proxy wars with Saudi Arabia backing Sunni Muslims. IS uses these sectarian tensions to advance their narrative. In Iraq, a Shia majority country, the Sunni Muslims were underrepresented in the government which led to discrimination and ill-treatment of Sunni Muslims. IS portraying themselves as the protectors of Sunni Muslims, used the sectarian tensions between the two groups to gain support and recruit some Sunni Muslims.

They also used a deeper religious tone when it came to fulfilling the prophecy of the apocalypse and the creation of the Caliphate to attract religious extremists who would pledge their loyalty to the organisation and commit higher scale of violence such as suicide bombings. In Syria, Assad was seen as an infidel to IS who were Sunni Purist and considered anyone who was not Sunni a false believer, and further managed to gain support due to the crisis between the government and the people to recruit new members. In both cases, the cultural condition which sparked their violence was due to the sectarian tensions which had already existed within each country. Although these tensions did not exist pre-1970s, they have significantly played an essential role in contemporary conflicts and specifically in providing a narrative for terrorist organisations like IS. While this cultural condition is presumed to remain for the foreseeable future hence enables future terrorist organisations to form, it can be argued that the condition itself is not entirely cultural based on religion. In many cases, the principal reason for using the sectarian divide is based less on a religious rationale and rather on the means to obtain political power and influence in a region. To understand the social conditions which spark violence of terrorist organisations like IS, we must derive why people join IS with regards to their socio-economic status. In both Iraq and Syria, the rise of IS occurred during times of conflict which often resulted in social conditions such as unemployment, poverty and lack of necessities. In Tunisia, the driving social force which led to their revolution was the unemployment rates being over 50% for college graduates. These social conditions can be seen to play a more active role than cultural and political conditions as the basic instincts for humans are to survive, which makes it the highest priority. Due to the conflict, massive displacement of people with no necessities and a significant amount of time the need for these necessities could not be fulfilled by governments and NGOs due to the inability to access the people or the lack of resources. This is many cases created the perfect social conditions to force many people to surrender their moral beliefs, in other words, turn a blind eye to the acts of violence committed by IS in order to receive the necessities that IS were able to provide to the people.

Therefore it can be presumed that as long as there are socioeconomic conditions which drive people to a position in which there are fighting for the survival of themselves and their families, they will likely permit the violence of organisations as long as it prologues their survival. In the case of Syria more than Iraq, these conditions are expected to continue throughout the civil war and possible post-war during the fragile state in which the country must rebuild and appoint a new government. However, these conditions are not permanent, and there is a possibility that social conditions post-conflict can be radically improved. As long as the socio-economic status of the population rise to a level which not only meets their basic needs but provides them with an incentive that the social conditions will be better under the government than another organisation like IS, the population will unlikely follow the path of violence regardless of the religious sentiments.

In conclusion, it is likely that the social, cultural and political conditions which sparked the violence of the Islamic State are here to stay and that it is possible for another organisation to replace IS and use those same conditions to justify their acts of violence. Politically, the governments of the region remain unable to fulfil the needs of the populations and are incapable of preventing the cultural tensions fuelled by the larger dominant nations using their land as a proxy war. Due to these conditions, the social conditions remain undesirable, and the population becomes susceptible to joining groups which perpetuate violence like IS. However, these conditions coexist, and a change in on condition will likely impact the other conditions. This makes it a possibility, although unlikely in the foreseeable future, to for the improvement of one condition such as the political situation to have a positive effect on the other conditions such as the cultural and social conditions.

In this scenario, the conditions which sparked the violence committed by IS, will no longer exist and the country can begin to develop. For this to happen, the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran must stop using the region as a proxy war and remove not only their involvement but their influence over the region. Furthermore, the people of the respective countries, through the fatigue of war will eventually under these new circumstances focus on changing their conditions. Although it is not likely this will happen in the near future, as stated multiple times in the essay, no conditions are permanent and similar how the conditions that came into place which sparked violence, the conditions can be changed to promote peace.