The Key National Security Risks Singapore Is Facing Today

Introduction

In 2004, Singapore laid out our national security strategy and plans to counter the long-term threat of terrorism. Today, with the ever-changing global landscape and increasing cyber-dependency, Singapore is facing multivariate and interdependent challenges to our national security. The threat of terrorism remains at a high and is the number one national security risk for Singapore. Along with this are the increasing cyber threats and the spread of deliberate online falsehoods.

Key National Security Risks

Terrorism

Even though globally, deaths caused by terrorism has decreased by 22 per cent since its peak in 2014, terrorism continues to spread to more countries. For example, in 2016 there were 77 countries that experienced deaths from terrorism, which was an increase from 65 countries in the previous year. Two thirds of all countries experienced a terrorist attack in 2016, of which OECD countries experienced the most deaths from terrorism since the September 11 attacks in 2001. ISIS remains the driving force behind this increase as they continue to inspire new recruits and direct attacks abroad.

In Southeast Asia, the scale and complexity of terrorism threat is growing. Foreign fighters displaced from the Middle East returned to the region, seeking a stronghold here. In 2017, ISIS-linked fighters killed more than 1,100 people and succeeded in occupying Marawi in the Philippines. The Marawi siege underscored the threat from transnational terrorist networks, as funding from ISIS terrorists in the Middle East continues to support and provide resources in Marawi. The Philippines, is just one alternative location that has opened up in the region. A similar situation could develop along the border of Bangladesh and Myanmar, where hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims have attempted to flee persecution. An armed Rohingya insurgency already operates along this border. A recent report predicts that in the coming years, extremists from Southeast Asia may try to get to Myanmar to join Rohingya insurgents.

Another growing concern in Southeast Asia is a rise in political extremism, particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia. A recent survey found that 9.2 percent of Indonesia's population supports the imposition of an Islamic caliphate.

Though Singapore is ranked as one of the safest countries in the world, we are not immune to the threat of terrorism. Singapore was cited as a target in jihadist publications and videos, by ISIS and other groups. Thwarted plots targeting places at home, and developments over the past year, suggest the fight is far from over.

Cyber threats

The fight against terrorism is further exacerbated by the increasing cyber-dependency of our society. In the last two years, 18 self-radicalised Singaporeans were arrested including youths, women and auxiliary police officers. A common trend among the radicalised youth is a heavy dependence on the Internet and social media for information (including religious teachings), making them the most vulnerable targets.

Cybercrime has been used to support and finance unlawful activities, including terrorism. A recent report stated that the FBI had exposed an international network run by ISIS that used fake eBay and PayPal accounts to transfer funds to operatives in the US. Other more advanced methods, such as the money transfer system built by IS that uses cryptocurrencies (e.g. Bitcoin), helps avoid traditional bank transfers and accompanying risk. What this means is that with the use of cryptocurrencies, terrorist organizations are now able to engage in creative means of generating cash.

The increase in cyber-attacks in Singapore mirrors global trends. In 2017, breaches suffered by two of our local universities and the Ministry of Defence’s Internet access system reflected the increasingly targeted nature of cyber-attacks. More worryingly, there has been a shift from profit-motivated attacks, towards those aimed at causing massive disruptions (e.g. WannaCry ransomware campaign). In a sign that cyber threats will continue to be a huge concern in Singapore, a recent report showed that Singapore was the top cyber-attack target around the world during the Trump-Kim summit this year. Singapore experienced close to 40,000 attacks during the meeting, receiving 4.5 times more attacks than the United States or Canada on both days.

Deliberate Online Falsehoods

Deliberate online falsehoods (i.e. “fake news”) will be another key national security risk for Singapore. Similar to how the cyberspace has been used by terror organizations to spread their ideology and recruit fighters, fake news could further expose racial and religious fault-lines in society, and is a threat to Singapore’s social harmony. This has occurred in other countries. For example, earlier this year fake news in Sri Lanka, on Muslim eateries mixing pills into the food of their Sinhalese patrons to make them impotent, resulted in communal riots.

Dealing with such risk requires a coordinated approach and response that goes beyond the whole-of-government. Singapore’s national security strategy had always been to anticipate/prevent threats from developing in the first instance; protect Singapore against the more likely threats; respond to such threats if prevention and protection should fail; and achieve a quick recovery to return Singapore to a state of normalcy. But with a more uncertain and complex future, it would take a whole-of-nation effort for Singapore to ensure the safety of its people.

Measures

1. Anticipate and Prevent

Identifying emergent risks would aid in anticipating and in turn preventing, black swan events. This can be done through horizon scanning and scenario planning, complementing efforts to plan response measures and prioritise resource allocation. In addition, assessing the underlying interdependencies of such risks that could have indirect impact on multiple domains and agencies would be critical. Vulnerabilities in such interconnected networks could possibly be exploited and breached, ultimately impacting the whole nation.

Respond

Singapore would also need to continue building up its capabilities to fight against terrorism, cyber threats and the spread of deliberate online falsehoods. For example, constant peacetime exercises of officers from various agencies would ensure smoothened communications, command and control during actual crises. Officers would need to be continuously kept up to date with the changing security landscape, ensuring that they are aware of new and emerging security threats. This could better prepare officers on their response if such a situation arose. However, for cybersecurity, capability building could be challenging as there is currently a shortage of cybersecurity professionals worldwide. To address this gap, Singapore formed the Cyber Security Agency (CSA) in 2015, and has taken significant steps in bolstering and strengthening cybersecurity in Singapore.

Singapore has also developed ways to counter propaganda directed at self-radicalising individuals. Nevertheless, it remains a challenge for authorities to detect someone who has been self-radicalised and to rehabilitate them early on. As such, the wider community (family, friends, colleagues) would have to step-up and play an important role in alerting the authorities. Timely intervention measures can then be done, as it is harder to rehabilitate self-radicals as compared to Jemaah Islamiah (JI) detainees that were generally recruited directly by the South-east Asian terrorist group itself. There is also a need to get young people to visit mosques and listen to accredited preachers. This would deepen their understanding of Islam and prevent them from being easily susceptible or influenced by extreme ideologies.

In addition, Singapore is situated in a volatile region where terrorism has taken root. As such, it would be in Singapore’s best interest to further strengthen international and regional partnerships, as these interconnected security risks have evolved into “transnational” in nature.

Recover

Singapore should continue studying both the source and ways of promoting the capacity of multicultural societies, that would ensure strong inter-racial/religious bonds in the face of systemic shocks i.e. social resilience. A recent report by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) showed that inter-racial mingling could help in weathering a terror attack.

Conclusion

National security is critical for the survival and economic growth of Singapore. Managing national security risks and supporting Singapore’s resilience is complex and involves a wide range of government agencies. This would require coordination of all sectoral and government capabilities where national planning or a national response is required, including:

• Identification and management of risks;
• Appropriate and timely response;
• Effective use of national resources;
• Minimisation of adverse outcomes;
• Addressing multiple objectives concurrently;
• Coordinating agencies’ activities.

This approach helps to ensure that risks receive appropriate attention, the right capabilities are developed, and lessons are identified and learned from. The public also has an increasingly important role to play in national security. In the event of an attack, Singaporeans must come together and show solidarity, so as to ensure that our social fabric remains intact, allowing Singapore to recover quickly. Those who know Singapore’s history would know that early years of independence saw acts of violence such as communal riots in 1969 and bomb attacks during the Konfrontasi. These memories are fading and our younger generation will not know what it would be like to live through those earlier, difficult years. Nevertheless, we must ensure that we do not remain complacent or else run the risk of losing everything that we had built for. Anticipating what is on the horizon, and a thorough understanding of our past, can help us build readiness and resilience for our future.