A 2050 Decarbonised Energy Scenario For Norway

Aim of Report

A future with a global mean surface temperature rise of 2°C above pre-industrial levels looks bleak and expensive. Green House Gas levels in the atmosphere have been steadily rising in the past decades due to industrialisation and are making this unfathomable future look possible. Reducing the rise in the global mean temperature is possible but will require the assistance and corporation of everyone in the world. The aim of this report is to show an energy scenario for Norway which depicts a significant reduction in Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels from 1990 to 2050 to meet a Carbon Target of 2. 75 Mt of CO2 (specifically a 90% reduction). Suggestions on how to meet this carbon target are outlined in the report along with numerical backing to show its feasibility.

Norway

About Norway:

Norway is a northern European country with a population of 5,302,778 as of January 2017 (Ministry of transport and communications 2017). The population density in Norway is the lowest among all the European Countries with greater than 80 per cent of the people living within urban areas (Ministry of transport and communications 2017). The World Bank estimates Norway to have a Gross Domestic product (GDP) of US$ 398. 832 million and thus a GDP per capita of US$ 75,504. 566 as of 2018. The country boasts of several natural resources such as water bodies, petroleum and fishes which are exploited to make up a large part of their wealth.

Carbon History and the Current Energy System of Norway

Norway’s CO2 emissions (Mt of CO2) increased sharply from 27. 47 MtCO2 in 1990 to 31. 41 MtCO2 in 1995, from there it remained fairly constant and increase by 0. 47 MtCO2 from 1995 to 2000 (IEA 2017). The increase in CO2 emission in the 90’s was caused by economic growth especially the growth in the oil and gas sector (production and pipeline transport of natural gas). Industrial processes, road traffic (because of the increased usage of Heavy-duty vehicles) and, coastal traffic and fishing were the other contributing sectors (IEA 2017). In the 2000’s the CO2 emissions rose steadily to its peak of 38. 39 MtCO2 in 2010 and started declining to the last recorded value by the IEA of 35. 52 MtCO2 in 2016. The transportation sector contributed significantly to the CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2015 as the number of registered passenger cars alone in Norway increased by 758,000.

The continuous exploitation of Oil and Gas resources as well as the usage of coal, oil products and natural gas in industries contributed majorly to the CO2 emissions during this period. Minor contributions were from Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), residential, commercial and public services (IEA 2017). A graphical presentation of this summary is shown in Appendix 1. According to the IEA, the Total Final Energy Consumption by sector has four main sectors. These segments have subdivisions as ‘other’ the largest sector, can be further subdivided into Residential, Agriculture / forestry, Fishing, Commercial and public services, and these contribute to 37% of the demand on energy. Transportation which contributes to 23% comprises of land, water and air modes of transport. The Industry accounts for 29% of the total consumption as most of the processing plants which turn the raw materials into finished good and adds more income to the economy can be found here. Non-Energy use accounts for the rest of the consumption. (IEA 2017)Source: IEA (2017)The current Total Primary Energy Supply by source (TPES) for Norway is dominated mainly by Hydro Power (as 96% of the nation’s power is produced by a hydropower station) and Primary and Secondary Oil (The largest sector in Norway’s economy has been Oil and Gas and thus it is being exploited largely to generate substantial wealth (IEA 2017)) with other minor contributions from Natural Gas, Biofuels and Waste, Coal and Geothermal respectively. [image: ]Presently, the energy supply in Norway meets the demands of the country but this energy balance produces CO2 levels which can be detrimental to the environment.

Proposed Way Forward

Methodology:

• A Carbon Target for Norway to reach in the year 2050 was set as a 90% reduction from its CO2 emissions in 1990 since it is an annex 1 nation. The CO2 emissions for Norway in 1990 was obtained from the IEA (27. 47 MtCO2) and subsequently a 90% reduction was applied to obtain a Carbon Target of (2. 747 MtCO2 or 2747 KtCO2).
• A 30% reduction by 2020 and a 40% reduction by 2030 were also set giving values of 19. 23 MtCO2 and 16. 48 MtCO2 respectively. The targets set are illustrated in the graph below. [image: ]
• The Energy Balance data was also obtained from the IEA Statistics from which an Energy Balance table was deduced. This table shows the demand side factors (Industry, Transportation, Oher; residential, commercial and public services, Agriculture/Forestry, Fishing. ) as well as the supply side factors (Coal, Crude Oil, Oil Products, Natural Gas, Most Renewables (Hydro, Geothermal, Solar, etc), and Biofuels and Waste).
• Most of these sectors can be further divided into smaller sub-sectors but for simplicity of the spreadsheet models the major sectors were presented ‘as a whole’.
• Three Spreadsheet models were created (shown in Appendix 2): The first spreadsheet model shows the current energy balance of Norway, the second shows the 2050 energy balance of Norway if adaptation is to be preferred in the future over mitigation now and the last spreadsheet is an optimal 2050 energy balance with a scenario which depicts strong mitigative measures and meets the Carbon target set for 2050.

These spreadsheet models have been created and simplified to show policy makers the pathway taken to arrive at the desired carbon target. The total amount of carbon dioxide emitted (KtCO2) has been calculated and is shown in each table. This was obtained by converting the values in units of ktoe of the respective sectors to GJ and the subsequently converting them again from GJ to kWh, this was done to enable us to multiply the representative values of each sector by emission factors obtained from the Norwegian emission inventory (Sandmo 2016) and afterward obtain the values in terms of the CO2 they emit (KtCO2).

In creating the 2050 models, growth was certainly going to change the values recorded in the 2016 model. To this effect the growth rate of Norway was obtained. The population of Norway is projected to increase to 6. 6 million (Norwegian Environment Agency 2014) by 2050, so using the compound growth formula (shown in appendix 3) a population growth rate of 0. 0073% was obtained.

Also, since the economic activity of a country grows as its population grows (Peterson 2017), it was assumed that most of the demand factors will be affected by the population growth rate. To obtain feasible values representing growth in the sectors, mathematical calculations were done using the population growth rate of Norway, and the efficiencies of some sectors. To get the right balance in the ‘2050 model with mitigation’, the demands had to be projected first in the ‘2050 model without mitigation’ which shows all the demands projected considering growth and without any measures put in place to counter it. Now these demands were now subjected low carbon transition options considering policies which would have to be put in place to make it possible to decrease the CO2 emissions. Then, the supply was adjusted to meet the demands in a realistic manner. Throughout these processes, current measures being put in place by Norway have been considered and used.

Demand:

• Industry; By 2050 all the industries in Norway would have to be powered by Bioenergy and Electricity as the usage of coal, oil products and Natural Gas in industries emit a large amount of CO2 into the atmosphere.
• Transportation; As the population increases the transportation sector is also expected to grow (to find this growth the population growth rate was used with the compound growth formula found in appendix 3 to find the projected value in 2050). As cars get more efficient, more people are expected to purchase them (Rebound effect) giving out more emissions than before. Also, freight and railway infrastructure will also have to increase to accommodate the growing number of people. To mitigate this the first option is to increase the bicycle lanes and walking lanes in the country to prevent people from having to travel with vehicles to take care of their needs, to this end a significant amount of money should also be invested in to ensure Norway is up to date with the latest technological advancement in e-commerce.

There will also be faster introduction and application of new technology based on Intelligent Transport System. Also, in a statement by the Ola Elvestuen (Norway’s Minister for Climate and Environment) in Brussels on 11th July 2018, by 2025 there would be 100 percent zero emission new car sales in Norway. The maximum life expectancy of a vehicle in Norway is 25 years (shown in appendix 4) so by 2050 all oil using vehicle would realistically leave the system. He went on to say, busses and vans will be mainly powered by Biofuels and 63 electric car ferries are being introduced in 2022 so by 2050 Norway can expect to have all our ferries running on electricity or biofuels. There are currently 4208km of railway network of which 2459km are electrified (Ministry of transport and communications 2004) the remaining 1749km will be electrified by 2025 and more electric trains would be aggressively introduced to the system to accommodate for the future transportation demands. All these can be satisfied because more three quarters of the country’s population live in urban areas as majority of Norway is unfavorable for human and agricultural settlement (Ministry of transport and communications 2004)

• Residential, Commercial and Public Services: The population growth is expected to increase the demand in this sector. The main source of CO2 from this sector is sourced from Oil products and Natural Gas, policy makers should put policies in place to stop the sales of gas stoves by 2025, as subsidies are put on Electrical stoves to increase purchase. The government should also embark on activities to encourage healthy eating habits which will decrease the usage of gallons of oil in cooking meals, but this cannot be forced on the people, so allowance will be made under ‘Non-specified’ to cater for this. Measures will be put in place to supply CHP factories with a suitable amount of bioenergy to offset the demand on electricity. Also, smart meters will be installed at homes, commercial places ad public services (either state of privately owned) to monitor electricity consumption. To this effect, the various electrical devices will have different unit prices. Devices like room heaters, water heaters and electric kettles will have higher tariffs placed on them to ensure minimal usage. Community Biomass Plants will be encouraged by the government by setting up a fund to aid this development. “Investment subsidies and support programs have been set for the development of district heating networks and the promotion of bioenergy in district heating. Investment subsidies of 20–40% can be provided for heating. ”(Scarlat et al. 2011).
• Agriculture/Forestry and Fishing: The demand growth in this sector will be reduced by eliminating the use of oil products and natural gas in this industry, instead agricultural machinery will run on biofuels and electricity. Major technological strides in the fishing sector will also have to be made to ensure the efficient capture of fishes per voyage. 0. 5 MtCO2 emitted is accounted for by anaerobic treatment of manure (Scarlat et al. 2011). Instead, food waste should be co-processed with the manure (Scarlat et al. 2011).

Supply

• Coal: The production of coal in Norway would seize but some amount will be imported to cater for non-energy use as it does not contribute to the CO2 emissions.
• Oil (Primary and Secondary Oil): Crude oil production would be limited to amounts for refinery into oil products which are needed in non-energy use for other sectors to run efficiently and for commercial export. Oil is a major income earner for Norway and thus to offset this, more resources will be diverted towards natural gas production and new technologies to keep the economy moving in the right direction. Majority of the oil products produced from the refinery will be exported and used to satisfy the non-energy usage of other sectors. Other sectors of the economy will have to be strengthened as Oil is an important part of our economy.
• Natural Gas: Norway has significant natural gas reserves in the North Sea (EIA 2014). In 2013, Norway supplied 21% of total European natural gas needs and it is only behind Russia and Qatar in the rankings of the highest natural gas exporters (EIA 2014). As other countries try to also decrease their carbon emissions they will seek to import more and decrease their production of natural gas. In this regard, the government will invest heavily in the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology and use them on all current natural gas processing plants and in the new and state of the art processing plants to increase the production of natural gas to ensure Norway remains one of the leading natural gas exporters in the world. The CCS technology is expected to work at a 90% efficiency.
• Hydro: Hypro power supplies 96% of Norway’s electricity (IEA 2016). In 2050, there is an expected increase of 33TWh in hydro power production which is approximately 2837 ktoe (Censes 2015). This increases the power generated from hydro powerplants in Norway.
• Geothermal, Solar & Wind: A 9TWh (773 ktoe) increment is expected in Norway’s wind power production between 2020-2030 and a dip afterwards to return the levels to the present level in 2050 (Censes 2015). Conscious efforts will be made by the government to keep the increment at 9TWh by investing in more floating wind turbines offshore.
• Biofuels and waste: In order to meet the demands, bioenergy will play an important role in the future of energy production in Norway due to the substantial amount of biomass resources available (Scarlat et al. 2011). Co-processing manure with food waste instead of anaerobically digesting the manure will ensure 30% will be used in bio-gas plants (Scarlat et al. 2011). Norway’s main source of bioenergy is forest biomass, over 12 million ha of Norway is covered by forests and this accounts for 37% of the land area with less than half (44%) of this area harvested annually (Scarlat et al. 2011). Through intensive afforestation practices and the use of the technological advancement in the agricultural sector a significant amount of biomass to produce bioenergy can be obtained. Scarlet estimated that if the biomass potential in Norway is properly exploited it can produce 440. 55 PJ (10. 51 Mtoe) of energy (Scarlat et al. 2011). This will be able to satisfy the demands and increase the export potential to bring in more economic income to the country. Norway’s biofuel production is still in the development phase as the construction and planning of numerous biodiesel production plants underway in order to meet the demands of biofuel for the transportation sector (Scarlat et al. 2011).

Extra Suggestions and Recommendations for Policy Makers

• The Government of Norway should bind itself with a Legal duty to meet the Carbon Target set in 2050;
• The government should set up an independent committee to recommend and advice the policy makers on all subjects relating to Climate Change;
• The Government should be transparent in all matters and decisions made regarding Climate Change as any decision made affect the people of Norway;
• A country wide campaign should be embarked upon to educate the people of Norway about the effects of a global mean surface temperature rise of 2°C above pre-industrial levels and how they can prevent it from occurring;
• Technological investment and research into modern renewable energy technologies should be financially backed by the government and treated with the utmost importance; and
• Decoupling should be prioritized going forwards to ensure a stable economy.

Conclusion

To attain the Carbon Target set and create a future for the younger generation of the world everyone must make sacrifices and all the countries in the world will have to pull their weight and collaborate. There will be an inevitable climate change, whether it will be detrimental for us or not depends on what we do now. Employing mitigative measures now will save lives and money in the future.