Assessing Whether Humans Or Nature Will Bring Us To Midnight On The Doomsday Clock
The idea of the end of the world otherwise known as doomsday has fascinated people for many years and it dates back to the first century with the prediction of the "second coming". However, many of the predictions are extremely irrational but nowadays one of the most reputable sources for calculating this event is the doomsday clock. In this essay I will be using the doomsday clock and other sources to try and understand and assess whether humans or nature or both will bring us to midnight on the doomsday clock. In order to do this I will be using 3 different criteria: Solar Flares, a Bacteria Epidemic and World War 3 and I will sort these by how likely they are to occur and the impact of each of them.
The Doomsday clock is a symbolic reference to the likeliness of the destruction of the human race via man's mistakes or creations, however, there is also some reference to natural causes. It was created in 1947 by a bulletin of scientists who were involved in the Manhattan project an effort to engineer the first atomic weapon. They created it as a result of nuclear threat and is updated about once a year and can move in any direction however, in recent times as has had a rising trend with the time becoming closer to midnight. Previously, scientists were only physicists and engineers, however, nowadays the team consists of many scientists, global environmentalists, philosophers along with many other professions. It is arguably the most reputable source for calculating the probability of doomsday because of this. At the moment, the clock is poised at 2 minutes to midnight. The reason given for this decision was because of "The failure of world leaders to address the largest threats to humanity's future"[2]. This is in reference to the "Obvious and Imminent danger" that is nuclear warfare. Before, there was reference to the global warming crisis along with the use and abuse of social media to suppress the truth from the general population.
One way nature could contribute towards the doomsday clock reaching midnight would be solar flares The sun constantly sends particles and energy to the earth via solar winds. it also y sends out bursts of matter and energy called flares. This is caused by magnetic turbulence in a star. Sometimes, the sun emits a plume of ionized gas. If this gas is directed at earth this can pose a serious threat to satellites and power grids. This means that the earth would got powerless and without long distance communication. [3] On March 10, 1989 one of the plume of ionized gases was emitted which was the size of 36 earths and two days later reached earth and hit the magnetosphere (the magnetic field the helps deflect solar winds) at a speed of 1 million miles an hour. On March 13, 1989 due to the plume, auroras like seen in aurora borealis spread as far south as Texas and Cuba. This 'light show' scared many people as reports later say that many people had feared that a nuclear war had broken out and that the world would come to an end. As well as this, many satellites suffered technical faults and glitches. However, this did not affect people’s everyday lives very much as there weren’t many in orbit and there weren’t many uses for the average person, however, if this were to happen now this would have a much more devastating effect our lives. This plume also extended beyond space but onto the earth’s surface where it caused geomagnetically induced currents. These surges infiltrated power grids all over Northern America as well as parts of Northern Europe. As well as this it destroyed a transformer at a nuclear power plant in New Jersey which could have had devastating effects. However, the largest effect was that Canada’s Hydro-Electric power utility grid for Quebec crashed.
This was due to safety systems sensing a power overload which was caused by pulses being sent through the ground because of the geomagnetically induced currents. This led to the system being closed down and meant that six million people in north-eastern Canada went without power for as long as nine hours. This happened to be the biggest power outage ever caused by a geomagnetic storm. These charged particles were to reach the Earth nowadays the effect would be a lot more devastating with it creating havoc with infrastructure like communication via satellites and power grids. This would mean that many would be living in the dark without communication. This means that the emergency services would be unable to continue as even though they would try their best to try and maintain order and people's health it would be extremely hard for them to be able to respond to people if they cannot communicate with them. It would also mean that all commerce will cease as well as food being unable to be delivered to local shops. Furthermore, pharmacies would be extremely lacking in medicine and with around 25% of Americans on medication which with a lack of would cause withdrawal symptoms such as anti-depressants and opioid drugs would lead to extreme restlessness and finally without satellites people would be without GPS and with a lack of paper maps nowadays, many people would be lost. Furthermore, most if not all factories would seize to work as nowadays they rely on power in order to work and in my opinion, this could lead to a world shown in movies such as "Mad Max". Moreover, I believe that even if people were able to get all communications and power back online, the cost of doing so would be huge and detrimental to society. Another natural event which could end up with human extinction would be Yellowstone "Super" Volcano erupting. It is said to have the destructive capability to send the entire world into a volcanic winter. This seems extremely likely seeing as we are overdue an eruption by around 40,000 years.
Another factor that could lead to midnight on the doomsday clock Bacteria Epidemics could be caused naturally by viruses mutating and becoming immune to antibiotics as well as many previous treatments. It could also be because human genetically engineering certain strains of virus of bacteria to have certain characteristics. Furthermore, viruses could affect animals that we live in close proximity with for examples pigs or dogs and these bacterium could jump across species to and start to effect humans. If these viruses or bacteria are not contained they can spread all over the world and wipe out or at least effect lots of people. One of the most prominent bacteria outbreaks in history was the black death was an outbreak which was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, killing 75-200 million people in Eurasia between 1347 and 1351 which was 30-60% of the population at the time. It originated from central Asia but migrated via rats through the Silk Road which made its way into mainland Europe, as well as this led to people at the time trying to find the root of the problem and immediately meant that they targeted and killed many minority groups such as Jewish people and Lepers. However, I believe that if this were to happen today it would not be as prominent as personal and commercial hygiene has improved hugely since the medieval period. Furthermore, we have modern medicine that could potentially be able to combat it, we also have modern knowledge which will help us find the actual root of this problem.
On the other hand, it could have been transported a lot easier and a lot faster due to the introduction of modern transport such as planes and trains. This could easily allow for it to become a global pandemic rather than just effecting one or two continents. One of the most recent outbreaks occurred in South Africa this year in March regarding the Listeria disease. It killed at least 180 people as well as having 727 confirmed cases of the disease. It was traced back to processed meats like sausages. This is the largest ever recorded outbreak of the Listeria disease. However, this didn’t really affect the rich population as they tend to buy meats that aren't processed. This shows that the lower class could more easily be impacted by bacteria outbreaks than the upper class. Luckily this wasn’t a contagious disease and therefore couldn’t have spread to other countries, however, if it were to spread to mainland Europe then the results could have been quite devastating. These outbreaks seem to be generally natural, however, if a virus were to have a bit of human input how catastrophic the result could be if the purpose was to be to wipe out the population. This would have a total disregard to modern medicine and hygiene and could easily wipe out most, if not all of the population if engineered correctly.
My third and final point which could lead to the doomsday clock reaching midnight could be nuclear warfare which would spread across the whole world, this idea if commonly referred to World War 3 or a nuclear holocaust. This does not seem to far-fetched at the moment give our current political situation for example the stalemate between North and South Korea or the war in Myanmar. Furthermore, it seems as though not many people have faith in the world leaders as there has been in extreme increase in people buying potassium iodide pills [6] which are said to prevent the effects of radiation which could be caused by a 'nuclear winter' along with survival kits which contain all the essential such as medicine, food, water and a radio which would be needed if people were to live in bunkers.
Furthermore, this war is said to make earth uninhabitable due to radiation and residue which would be caused by a nuclear weapon, and if people were to survive this nuclear winter they would have to survive without modern technology as electromagnetic pulses would disable use of such technology like seen with the solar flares. Even if they were to survive without modern technology to rely on there would be a "nuclear famine" which is an idea which states that because of nuclear warfare the agriculture production and distribution would be hugely disrupted which would lead to prices in shops and markets heavily increasing leading to many people in poverty dying. This figure is estimated to be around 500 million people dying. Even if people weren't to die from the bombs there would also have to be soldiers fighting on the ground in the opposing countries which would ultimately lead to many more deaths. Another new technology which would lead to more deaths would be drones, whether they are used to fight alongside fighter pilots and jets or whether they are remotely controlled for bombing runs. Another aspect which could appear prominent during World War 3 would be hacking which can be used to destroy to turn a county's own technology against them or can be used to gain intel from an opposing country or group. People speculate what a potential World War 3 without nuclear weapons and try to convey it through the medium of video games for example, "World War 3", a game by the company The Farm 51, has gained traction via many gaming events for its supposed "True Combat Experience". The company worked together alongside military professionals in order to try and make the game as authentic as possible and also tried to envision the future of warfare. Another way humans could cause the doomsday clock to reach midnight could be because of the destruction of the environment and more specifically the heavy use of fossil fuels. The large use of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas can ultimately lead to holes in the ozone layer and if these holes were to be above major cities could have devastating effects. It would hugely increase the levels of Ultraviolet Light and would lead to massive increases in cancer and skin diseases and could cause sunburn in as fast as 5 minutes[8]. Also, many random mutations could occur as DNA can sometimes be altered when exposed to too much UV light.
Considering all of these factors I believe that even though a nuclear holocaust would in the worst-case scenario wipe out the human race or at least 99% of it and even though solar flares are most likely seeing as we are overdue on by around 150 years. In my opinion, a bacteria epidemic would be extremely devastating with some human intervention and is quite likely.
