Cyber Terrorism in the Future: Criminology Theories

Abstract

Overall, cybercrimes are correlated to the traditional crimes as indicated by laid down criminology theories. We analyse the existing cyberterrorism based on those theories and predicts future trends. We have considered multifaceted factors, technology, regulations and policies, and criminology theories

I. Introduction

Cyberterrorism is a difficult term to study because it is multifaceted topic. There is no globally accepted definitions and laws which is often political. It is being said, “One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter”. But, literally, it is a new form of terrorism facilitated using technologies mainly the Internet.

In order to understand cyberterrorism, we consider three main actors. One, cybersecurity experts who are saddled to developing solutions to mitigate risks. Second, the policymakers who are responsible for making policies, legal and jurisdiction provisions and needed government institutions. Lastly, attackers themselves who commit terror attacks.

We consider Cyberterrorism to be a major issue of concern in the future, due its uncertainty. Although, there are not many pieces of research in studying how criminology is used to study cyber terrorisms which according to Dolliver & Seigfried-Spellar, terrorists are not easy to be seen for sampling, which lead to lack of data needed by academics to make their analysis.

The remaining sections are as follows: section II- attempts to cyberterrorism and its shortcomings; section III- understanding cyberterrorism through criminology theory; section IV- future of cyberterrorism by emerging technologies; and section V- wrapping up.

II. Responses to Cyberterrorims and Its Pitfalls

Cybersecurity experts put in place techniques such as Closed-Circuit TV (CCTV), Honeypots which are used for monitoring physical movements of people and malicious network traffic respectively, among others. Despite measures yet leaving behind other issues like Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) - which according to, Al-Qaida use through the medium of the Internet to gather intelligence information publicly available as well as raise volunteers through social network platforms available. Technologies are often developed without oversight about future risks. The CCTV, unfortunately, could be displaced by the terrorists as well.

Meanwhile, the second actor predominantly uses surveillance in some ways. For instance, in Africa, there exists a Centre for Applied Policy Research which highlighted the ways in which the Tunisian government have come up with laws to curtail suspicious financial activity relating to terrorism. This has been through enabling laws for money laundering that could lead to the cyberterrorist financing check by the National Cyber Security Commission and Tunisia Commission for Financial Analysis. Unfortunately, it is only activities terrorists could do on the surface web that could be monitored but, yet the anonymous market (Dark Web) making it worsts.

Although, no any reported case of successful terrorist attack primarily on the Internet, according to, the use of the Internet for information gathering, can aid terrorists to learn how to build sophisticated weapons and or even easily share communicate propaganda. Therefore, despite cybersecurity techniques, the openness of information publicly and freely available on the web through the ungoverned Internet that terrorists could look for to carry out a horrible attack in the physical world. Similarly, the failure to address Tor and the dark web anonymous activities supporting terrorist without being noticed. A recent study indicates that almost half of the activities therein are illicit. Therefore, in order to ensure adequate cyber defence, there should be a balance between Internet governance and anonymity issues on it causing a lot of trouble towards future cyberterrorism.

III. Criminology and Cyberterrorism

Criminology is a pathway which applies sociological, physiological and computer science to study, analyse the causes of the cybercrimes. Although the far majority of researches analyse how cyberterrorism if motivated based on Rational Choice Theory (RCT) which is based on whether or not the terrorist will get some benefits or not, based on the cost-benefit analysis. In understanding the cyberterrorism, we consider three main theories; the RCT, Deterrence theory and Labelling theory, discussed in detail in the subsequent paragraphs.

Typically, consider, ‘RCT’ which is based on cost-benefit analysis decision the making process by terrorists. It is obvious that cyber will be more and more cost-effective for cyber terrorists especially for it been open and cheap, as well as the anonymity that is provided for terrorists to remain hidden while exploiting its benefits. Based on their interviews with the active and non-active members of some selected terrorist organisations, they realised that they do have entrepreneurial leadership where they balance between the cost of launching the was worth the potential benefits to derive thereafter, which is rational. Undergo similar approaches towards explaining the RCT in relation to terrorist activities.

On the other hand, uses the ‘Deterrence Theory’ to study why terrorist group could undertake cyber-attacks. Deterrence theory implies crimes are committed if explicit punishments are not defined. To Sterner, it is due to lack of stiff punishments by governments that makes terrorists conducts their attacks even more. This could be true taking an example of two popular and rising terrorist groups militants in Nigeria who were pardoned in recent years. They are Movement for Emancipation of Niger Delta and the Boko Haram (BH). The former was pardon so as to reduces the damages in the Oil region whereas the latter were set out of prison in exchange to the adducted school girls. Sometimes, it could be that, just as we mentioned that terrorisms have political affiliation at some stage, such punishments are not explicitly stated due to interest by those in position. A closely applicable Cyber related example is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Russo-Georgian cyber conflict in 2008 where the risk assessment undertaking in the US is confirmed not really enough as a solution to the dimension of the problem without clear punishment. This even makes new terror organisation rise making future to be unpredictable.

Unfortunately, considering the complex nature of terrorism being it political, sometimes powerless states or individuals are labelled as terrorists even if they are not. This idea is called ‘Labelling theory’. Example Senator Mohammed Ali Ndume was labelled to be linked to the BH, which many consider to be a political issue, allegedly perpetuated by the presidency, simply because he seems to be against the President in power at that time. Labelling theory brings about uncertainty in policing real terrorists and their sponsors, if politics is involved. However, some authors like set up some criminological paradigms encompassing disciplines psychological, social structure, social processes, and political.

IV. Future World of Cyberterrorism- Machine Learning (ML):

The current manual techniques of information gathering that we indicated to be the main contribution of the Internet to the cyberterrorists in section II, will in the future be facilitated by the sophisticated self-automated tools such as ‘Social Mapper’ which is a software for tracking individual face. Such technologies are cheap and could be obtained by cyberterrorists on their fingertips almost anonymously on the Web. This supports the idea of RCT where, it is about exploiting cheaper alternatives and avoiding been in risk of being caught by authorities.

ML was used to impersonate the speech of the former president Obama was reported. In the future, this could allow cyber terrorist to impersonate some reputable entities to share propaganda. This will be dangerous especially if such individuals have great impacts in influencing people to do something, for example, imagine a terrorist impersonating the preaching of one of respected cleric and pass commands to his followers to incite violence terror activity.

However, uses the idea of Game Theory to analyse the correlation and coexistence between groups in terms cyber terrorism, they compare the theory with the decision-making theory which is the subset of RCT. The decision theory mainly focuses on how individual portray his/her decisions. Whereas in game theory it is a matter of having actors in place under uncertain equilibrium. For example, in cyberterrorism you have the terrorists as actors and governments as defenders. This kind of attempt could be useful in understanding the future cyberterrorism as defence/mitigation mechanisms.

V. Conclusion

The future cyberterrorism is better understood by criminology theories which need refinement across multidisciplinary research paradigms, encompassing computer science, particularly cyber security, criminology, sociology, history, political science among others. Overall, cyberterrorism is becoming easier and cheaper due to the ‘anonymity’ and evolving technologies like ML, supported by the current Internet. The big questions are, how could we develop a very efficient identity management system in the future? Could it be developed? If yes, what cyberterrorists would likely do is to surrender in as much as there exists a globally accepted definition, laws and collaborative combat to terrorism generally.

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