Office Of The Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff

This memo outlines options for US action against Russian military concentrations on the Latvian border. After the declaration of martial law, the US’ Central Intelligence Agency detected significant Russian military concentrations such as heavy armor units in Latvia, the exploitation of internal division, and the infiltration of “little green men.

Background:

The “little green men” instill precedent fear of Russia exploiting Baltic vulnerabilities as the Russians did in the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The U. S. seeks to avoid a similar situation and the hindrance of its own power despite its required participation bound by Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty created by NATO. The article commits NATO members to come to the others’ defense if any are attacked. We have the duty to defend a treaty ally against threats to its sovereignty and security.

Objectives:

This agency has two principle objectives in this matter: Prevent the use of armed force to coerce people of Europe or alter established boundariesEnsure peace and stability

Options and Analysis:

In order to accomplish the aforementioned objectives, this agency proposes two options: Deploy troops The U. S. could deploy an Army battalion split equally among the three EFP deployments in the Baltic States to patrol and monitor the borders. The risk with this course of action would include Russia using anti-access or anti-denial capabilities around the Baltic Sea cutting off the air and naval routes. Use Nuclear WarfareThe U. S. could potentially use nuclear warfare in Poland. However, placement in Poland would make us more vulnerable to Russian attack via the Iskander ballistic missiles which have been used in Kaliningrad before. Also, this would contradict NATO’s policy of not placing nuclear weapons on new allies’ territory which would result in a divided alliance. Lastly, this could potentially be viewed by Moscow as a provocation similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis attempt in 1962 by the Soviet’s to place nuclear missiles in Cuba.

Recommendations and Justifications:

The first priority is to remove the threat to the Baltics while ensuring peace and stability. To do so, it recommends that the president have congress vote on the implementation of the deployment of split Army troops. The deployment of 200,000 U. S troops for patrolling will notify the cabinet of any change in Russian military installations, patrol entering ships. This option would result in less casualties and would be less costly both financially and environmentally than the use of nuclear warfare. The nuclear warfare should be a last resort in the case that Russian pressure on the Baltics becomes a crisis. As part of any response, this agency supports continuing Central Intelligence Investigations to anticipate escalation and working closely with NATO to ensure the use of the bilateral Agreement of the Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities.

Also, NATO should attempt to stabilize the current relation with Russia through encouraging security-building measures and arms control to ensure future stability. We must also induce Moscow to participate in broader talks regarding the European Security and arms control. Finally, the United States should advise Russia that any attack on the Baltic’s will be seen as a threat to National Security and will prompt a commensurate U. S. response.