Threat Scenario: Palatka Bioterrorism Event

Introduction

While Small events do not require robust security protocols and responses to conduct secure events, small towns can be easy targets from the lense of skilled terrorists seeking to impose their political and personal ideologies. Limited resources for small town law enforcement authorities restrict response capabilities, critically low staffing in most small towns slow response times, and in the case of Palatka, Florida, the close proximity to several major cities, airports, and freeways could be used as a precursor event to test the responses of other cities in preparation for a larger event. These points are not an all inclusive list of the possible reasoning behind planning a terror event in a small town, but they provide a framework for considering the potential types of attacks and why a terrorist might be conducting such an attack with the illusion of irrationality of choice.

Ricin Background

Castor is a plant that produces a seed, or bean. From the bean, Castor oil is pressed from ripe seeds that have had their hulls, or outer covering, removed. The oil has been used for centuries in traditional medicines to treat ailments such as constipation or as a natural emollient. The hull contains a deadly poison called Ricin that can be concentrated and weaponized by purifying the compounds into particles so small they can be breathed in or ingested. Potential modes of deployment can be in the form of a powder, a mist, a pellet, or it can be dissolved in water or acid. Successful Ricin poisoning is the result of infected cells, blocked by the effects of the toxin, suffering the inability to synthesize their own protein. This means key functions in the body begin to shut down after upwards of 24 hours after effective exposure (Nosowitz, 2018). Although, when compared to other Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) weapons, Ricin’s toxicity is not as potent. A few factors make this compound of dangerous concern. According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), as of 2018 Ricin poisoning has no cure. Additionally, the Ricin compound is not hard to isolate; requiring only elementary chemistry understanding to produce. As of March 1st, 2020, Castor Beans can be purchased on the internet by the hundreds on sites like Etsy for $50 USD.

Proposed Terrorist Scenario

The Location: Palatka

Palatka, Florida is a town located in NorthEast Florida situated approximately one hour south of Jacksonville, Florida and one hour North of Daytona Beach Florida. The population rests around 10.5 thousand residents spread across 9.63 mi². Palatka is classified as a small town and has an adequate level of medical care. The emergency service, generally speaking, are understaffed and facing concerns of critical manning.

Several major events take place in Palatka that draw crowds between upwards of 2,500 to 250,000. One of the largest events that takes place is the Blue Crab Festival celebrated in May by in-state, out-of-state, and local residents. Crowds across a three day time-span could reach up to 250,000 in a one-mile stretch along the downtown mainstreet. Other events that take place are the Christmas Parade, Thanksgiving Parade, Fourth Of July Firework Show, and Azalea Festival, to name a few. For the scenario, the focus will be the Christmas Parade which takes place at the end of November. Attendance at the Christmas parade can reach up to 2,500 spectators densley lining the main downtown street in a one-mile span. Local police, Emergency Services, and High-level local politicians attend.

The Christmas Parade is a prime target to carry out a small-scale bioterrorism event directly targeting 200-300 spectators with an indirect impact potentially reaching near 600-700. The mode of delivery will be both misted and aerosolized Ricin mixed with a solvent to target both respiratory pathways, as well as effective skin absorption maximizing the potential infection toll.

The Attack

Considering the psychology of pack mentality, precursor and secondary explosion will take place at strategic places along the parade route to funnel the target closer to the infection site. One precursor explosion will take place at the Mayor’s residence to draw critical attention from a large majority of active law enforcement officials away from the event. Additional explosions before the deployment of the Ricin will take place in three places, City Hall (near beginning of Parade Route), First Baptist Church (near Middle of Parade Route), and an unsecured warehouse (at the end of the Parade Route). In a staggered deployment, these near synchronized explosions will create a sort of organized panic seeking to push the patrons toward a central point. At that time 2 two preset parade floats, that sit unsecured the night before various places around the city, that have been discreetly retrofitted with a simple remote controlled air-cannon deployment system will initiate releasing the Ricin particles into the middle of the crowd frantically surrounding the vehicle. At that range, direct contact with the compound could prove fatal. While emergency services are on-site, the mass of people running away from the sounds of the explosions will slow response times. Additionally, due to the amount of sub-attack taking place, emergency services may be too overwhelmed to stage a response quick enough to limit fatal exposure.

Prevention Strategy

Average police response time for a city the size of Palatka is roughly between 5 -10 minutes depending on the location (Colburn, 2018). Considering the police precinct and fire department are situated along the parade route, these times will be faster. However, with the spread of events taking place and the crowded streets, the response times may be skewed.

While many strategies can be adopted by local authorities to combat the possibility of an event like this from taking place, like many small cities, the barrier of expendable resources force the security elements to ‘make-do’. However, with the factor that a budget increase has been authorized, a few major prevention strategies can take place prior to the event beginning from a local perspective.

Employ a bomb sniffing dog to trace the parade route, conduct security inspections on registered parade floats utilizing bomb mirrors and other tools, create controlled entry points as the parade begins at several limited places along the route, reinforce the enacted joint security plan, employ cleared volunteer security personnel (potentially senior police academy or senior JROTC cadets), and conduct extensive open-source or law-enforcement classified research. These are a few examples of protocols to consider implementing to thwart potential attacks. Many manuals exist such as the Department of Justice’s Planning And Managing Security For Major Special Events manual. Proactive and active actions with a combination of the aforementioned protocols could be a cost-effective method of securing small densely populated events.

Conclusion

In 2018, there were a total of 67 events classified as terror attacks in the United States (Statista, 2018). While this number is low compared to the 16,000 other homicide cases in 2018, the data illustrates that these types of event are happening nation-wide and have steadily increased over the past decade. Despite a locale being classified as a small town, authorities strive to make their cities hard targets for homegrown and international terrorists alike. Although, financial burdens could place a bind on department operations hoping to gear up for the planning of large events. An attack or terror activity in a small town is likely. Much similar to the retaliatory attacks from the commune of Rajneeshee in 1984 where over 700 individuals were infected with salmonella. Small towns can be easy targets because everyone knows each other and does not suspect sinister activity. However, with an security educated community and healthy suspicion of outsiders, communities can remain safe and able to free enjoy local events.

References

• 1984 Rajneeshee bioterror attack. (2020). Retrieved 1 March 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Rajneeshee_bioterror_attack
• Butchard, P. (2017). Is Terrorism a ‘Rational Choice’?. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.e-ir.info/2017/07/06/is-terrorism-a-rational-choice/
• Chai, P., Hayes, B., Erickson, T., & Boyer, E. (2018). Novichok agents: a historical, current, and toxicological perspective. Toxicology Communications, 2(1), 45-48. doi: 10.1080/24734306.2018.1475151
• Colburn, R. (2018). Action News Jax Investigates: Amid resignations, response times increase in local town. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/action-news-jax-investigates-amid-resignations-response-times-increase-in-local-town/831803452/
• Franca, T., Kitagawa, D., Cavalcante, S., da Silva, J., Nepovimova, E., & Kuca, K. (2019). Novichoks: The Dangerous Fourth Generation of Chemical Weapons. International Journal Of Molecular Sciences, 20(5), 1222. doi: 10.3390/ijms20051222
• Hamid, S. (2015). Is ISIS Rational?. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/11/isis-rational-actor-paris-attacks/417312/
• Lemann, N. (2010). Terrorism Studies. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/04/26/terrorism-studies
• Loria, K. (2018). More than 206 million eggs have been recalled because of a salmonella outbreak — here's what the illness is and how to avoid it. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.businessinsider.com/salmonella-2018-how-people-get-food-poisoning-2018-4
• Novichok is a 'dangerous and sophisticated' Soviet-era nerve agent — here's how it works and why it's so lethal. (2018). Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.businessinsider.com/nerve-agents-chemical-weapons-how-they-work-2018-3
• Number of murders in the U.S. | Statista. (2020). Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/
• Poison used in recent attack on Russian spy may soon be banned. (2019). Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/10/poison-used-recent-attack-russian-spy-may-soon-be-banned
• Richetti, C., & Tregoe, B. (2001). Rational Thinking as a Process. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/101017/chapters/Rational-Thinking-as-a-Process.aspx
• Sparrow, A. (2015). Syria: Death from Assad’s Chlorine. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2015/05/07/syria-death-assads-chlorine/
• Terrorism: number of terrorist attacks in the United States 2018 | Statista. (2020). Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/591079/number-of-terrorist-attacks-in-united-states/#statisticContainer
• Thuras, D. (2014). Slate’s Use of Your Data. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html
• University, M. (2018). What is Novichok? A neurotoxicologist explains. Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2018/what-is-novichok-a-neurotoxicologist-explains/
• Wellen, R. (2020). Chlorine: Assad’s Double-Edged Sword - FPIF. Retrieved 2 March 2015, from https://fpif.org/chlorine-assads-double-edged-sword/
• What are Novichok nerve agents?. (2018). Retrieved 2 March 2020, from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43377698